Background
Last post I mentioned that I am learning and studying blackjack in hopes of coming out on top during my next trip to a casino. And I have ... news. The casinos know what they are doing, and it is not looking so good. The following posts will detail the findings from my simulations. This article will concentrate on statistics about the dealer.Code Coming Soon!
Also, I plan to make my Java code available on Github at some point in the future. It has configurable rules, implementable Player interface to allow AI bots and can simulate ~825,000 hands per second before any real attempt at optimization.Dealer Stats
I wanted to confirm the distributions from Knock Out Blackjack. The following distributions presented themselves for the dealer over 1 million hands against a single player using basic strategy. To confirm a fair uniform shuffle I tracked the dealers starting card:
Dealer's Starting Card:
2|****** 7.69%
3|****** 7.69%
4|****** 7.70%
5|****** 7.70%
6|****** 7.70%
7|****** 7.69%
8|****** 7.67%
9|****** 7.67%
10|********************** 30.74%
A|****** 7.70%
=========================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
The following are distributions close to the values presented in Knock Out Blackjack. For the following distributions, "No Play" means that the player busted and the dealer had a total score of < 17:
Dealer Hand Ending Amount:
17|********** 14.03%
18|********** 13.44%
19|********** 12.86%
20|************* 17.41%
21|********* 11.46%
Bust|******************* 25.86%
No Play|**** 4.90%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Low Cards - Likely to Bust
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 2 Showing:17|********** 14.01%
18|********** 13.49%
19|********** 12.97%
20|********* 12.41%
21|********* 11.83%
Bust|************************* 35.26%
No Play| 0.0%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 3 Showing:
17|********** 13.36%
18|********** 12.98%
19|********* 12.53%
20|********* 12.05%
21|********* 11.55%
Bust|*************************** 37.50%
No Play| 0.0%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 4 Showing:
17|********** 13.04%
18|********* 12.54%
19|********* 12.09%
20|********* 11.64%
21|******** 11.14%
Bust|**************************** 39.52%
No Play| 0.0%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 5 Showing:
17|********* 12.11%
18|********* 12.29%
19|********* 11.77%
20|******** 11.19%
21|******** 10.81%
Bust|****************************** 41.79%
No Play| 0.0%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 6 Showing:
17|************ 16.59%
18|******** 10.59%
19|******** 10.71%
20|******** 10.19%
21|******* 9.72%
Bust|****************************** 42.17%
No Play| 0.0%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Safe Zone Cards
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 7 Showing:
17|************************** 35.74%
18|********* 12.68%
19|***** 6.41%
20|***** 6.38%
21|***** 5.99%
Bust|*************** 21.30%
No Play|********* 11.47%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 8 Showing:
17|********* 11.94%
18|************************* 34.89%
19|********* 11.88%
20|**** 5.63%
21|**** 5.59%
Bust|************** 19.68%
No Play|******** 10.35%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 9 Showing:
17|******** 11.21%
18|******** 10.95%
19|************************* 34.37%
20|******** 11.16%
21|**** 4.90%
Bust|************* 18.42%
No Play|******* 8.96%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With 10 Showing:
17|******** 10.63%
18|******** 10.59%
19|******** 10.62%
20|************************ 33.44%
21|******** 10.62%
Bust|************* 17.82%
No Play|***** 6.24%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
Ending Amount When Dealer Starts With Ace Showing:
17|********* 11.87%
18|********* 11.95%
19|********* 11.99%
20|********* 12.02%
21|************************* 34.94%
Bust|******* 9.16%
No Play|****** 8.03%
==============================================================================
10%| 20%| 30%| 40%| 50%| 60%| 70%| 80%| 90%|
My next post will contain details about users hands.
